GEORGIA, can this fragile nation survive in the future?

Georgia - Can this fragile nation survive in the future?

Georgia is one of the oldest Christian nations in the world, however, her recent history is beset with many problems. You have major independent movements in both Abkhazia and South Ossetia who are both pro-Russian Federation. Also, ethnic Armenians and others also share tensions with this nation within the current boundaries of Georgia. Therefore, what does the future hold for Georgia?

Under the current leader of Georgia it is a mixed picture because he does appear to be more open to the Russian Federation. Yet he is still in the Western camp and he desires to join NATO and for Georgia to be a major transit of oil and gas via Azerbaijan and then passing through Turkey (with Georgia being in the middle). Therefore, Georgia still remains isolated within the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) bar Ukraine and Azerbaijan who also look Westwards.

More alarming for Georgia is her internal situation because it remains to be very delicate and both Abkhazia and South Ossetia desire either independence or to join the Russian Federation. For the Russian Federation this is an headache because they support the right for Kosovo to remain within Serbia, therefore, it is not so easy to support the disintegration of Georgia. But if Georgia oversteps herself then problems would arise because politics within Georgia itself is also divided.

Armenia is also worried about Georgia because Azerbaijan and Turkey are hostile to Armenia and Azerbaijan is developing her military. Therefore, Christian and Muslim tensions may erupt once more in Nagorno-Karabakh? If so, then Armenians may also claim a small part of Georgia`s land and this could further inflame the fragile deadlock? So Georgia is a victim of her geopolitical reality.

Overall, it would appear that the continuing stalemate will continue and this will not really help anyone. However it is much better than having major convulsions and facing possible disintegration. Yet if Georgia does firmly enter the Western camp then we do not know how the Russian Federaion will respond.

Tensions will also remain within both Abkhazia and South Ossetia respectively and within the body politics of Georgia? Added to this is the fragile economy and internal discontent and the pro-democratic movement which is also too impatient. Therefore, the situation will remain cloudy for Georgia and her future will remain uncertain with regards to her current boundaries.

Lee Jay Walker Dip BA MA

http://journals.aol.com/leejaywalker/uk/