ABKHAZIA - The desire for independence is getting louder!

ABKHAZIA - The desire for independence is getting louder!

The nation of Georgia faces serious internal problems and this applies to Abkhazia and South Ossetia respectively. The Abkhazians are now demanding to break free because of the Kosovo situation and they desire to create a new independent nation state or to join with the Russian Federation via special autonomy. South Ossetians are also watching events and of course they will follow suit. So can Abkhazia obtain independence?

If we look at how America and other nations, for example France and the UK, have supported the independence of Kosovo, then from an Abkhazian point of view they also have the same rights. Obviously this also applies to countless other nations where you have either frozen conflicts or ongoing problems. So Abkhazia is merely following the same logic and putting two and two together. Of course many nations warned about this but major Western powers desired to ignore this reality and their excuses are lamentable to say the least.

Yet how valid is Abkhazian independence? If we go back to the early 1990s then the demise of the former Soviet Union led to rampant nationalism and the entire region was engulfed. For example South Ossetia demanded independence from Georgia, while in neighbouring Azerbaijan they had a terrible civil war in Nagorno-Karabakh between mainly Christian Armenia and Muslim Azerbaijan. Also, southern parts of the Russian Federation were engulfed and this most notably applies to Chechnya, but also in other areas like Daghestan, Ingushetia, and North Ossetia.

Sadly since this time little progress appears to have been made and old hatreds or faultlines still exist. These faultlines are fueled by either ethnicity or religion or a mixture of both. However, the Abkhazians are both Christian and Muslim alike and most are pro-Russia because they believe that only Russia can help them in their struggle against Georgia. Yet for Georgia, this issue is like Chechnya or Dagestan in the Russian Federation, it is an internal issue.

Also, what makes this issue even more global is the energy dimension because America and Turkey, and the EU, desire to limit the roles of both the Russian Federation and Iran respectively. Given this, this issue is of strategic importance because for the Russian Federation chaos gan be used in order to spread their military leverage. Yet policies in Georgia have not helped and the central government is blighted by internal political tensions and past negative policies towards Abkhazia.

However, the "icing on the cake" for Abkhazia is the Kosovo legacy because they believe that this situation must also apply to them. Therefore, Abkhazians will increasingly grow in confidence and Georgia will feel isolated and angered by the Russian Federation. So this issue looks set to inflame passions on both sides and further bloodshed appears most likely in the near future.

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GEORGIA, can this fragile nation survive in the future?

Georgia - Can this fragile nation survive in the future?

Georgia is one of the oldest Christian nations in the world, however, her recent history is beset with many problems. You have major independent movements in both Abkhazia and South Ossetia who are both pro-Russian Federation. Also, ethnic Armenians and others also share tensions with this nation within the current boundaries of Georgia. Therefore, what does the future hold for Georgia?

Under the current leader of Georgia it is a mixed picture because he does appear to be more open to the Russian Federation. Yet he is still in the Western camp and he desires to join NATO and for Georgia to be a major transit of oil and gas via Azerbaijan and then passing through Turkey (with Georgia being in the middle). Therefore, Georgia still remains isolated within the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) bar Ukraine and Azerbaijan who also look Westwards.

More alarming for Georgia is her internal situation because it remains to be very delicate and both Abkhazia and South Ossetia desire either independence or to join the Russian Federation. For the Russian Federation this is an headache because they support the right for Kosovo to remain within Serbia, therefore, it is not so easy to support the disintegration of Georgia. But if Georgia oversteps herself then problems would arise because politics within Georgia itself is also divided.

Armenia is also worried about Georgia because Azerbaijan and Turkey are hostile to Armenia and Azerbaijan is developing her military. Therefore, Christian and Muslim tensions may erupt once more in Nagorno-Karabakh? If so, then Armenians may also claim a small part of Georgia`s land and this could further inflame the fragile deadlock? So Georgia is a victim of her geopolitical reality.

Overall, it would appear that the continuing stalemate will continue and this will not really help anyone. However it is much better than having major convulsions and facing possible disintegration. Yet if Georgia does firmly enter the Western camp then we do not know how the Russian Federaion will respond.

Tensions will also remain within both Abkhazia and South Ossetia respectively and within the body politics of Georgia? Added to this is the fragile economy and internal discontent and the pro-democratic movement which is also too impatient. Therefore, the situation will remain cloudy for Georgia and her future will remain uncertain with regards to her current boundaries.

Lee Jay Walker Dip BA MA

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