SOMALIA - UNSC urges Somalian government to hold peace talks

SOMALIA - UNSC urges Somalian government to hold peace talks

The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) is urging the government of Somalia to hold peace talks with various Islamic factions in order to form either a new coalition government or to prevent further bloodshed. However, is this really possible given the current situation and what does Ethiopia think about this? Therefore, is the UNSC being naive or do they believe that they can broker a peace deal via Djibouti?

Firstly, do rival factions desire peace or power? Also, how can Islamists who desire an Islamic state do a deal with the current government? These, and other questions, are vital and it would appear that the UNSC is being either over optimistic or naive, or they know something that nobody else does?

After all, the current government is threatened via internal Islamic factions and different warlords and these factions have supporters outside of Somalia. Also, what about the Ethiopian and Eritrean factor because these two nations are at loggerheads and an all out war between these two nations could also erupt. So how does the UNSC envisage a genuine peace given the internal and external dimensions of this conflict?

If we view the Ethiopian perspective, then they have to be invited to any lasting peace because it is their military which is supporting the government of Somalia. For Ethiopia, they are very unhappy with the international community because radical Islam not only threatens to engulf Somalia but it threatens eastern Ethiopia in the Ogaden region and of course other regional nations, for example Sudan. Despite this, the international community remains distant from this complex war.

Also, from an Eritrean perspective we see a completely different way of thinking. After all, Eritrea is worried about their border dispute with Ethiopia and they know that if they can tie down Ethiopia in Somalia, then their own national interests are strengthened. Also, Eritrea either directly or indirectly, is spreading radical Islam in the Ogaden region and Kenya and Uganda are both worried about this. Therefore, the regional dimension is extremely complex.

It would, therefore, appear to be an impossibe situation at the moment given the reality on the ground. So why does the UNSC deem this possible given the current reality? This question is very difficult to answer because the fact that peace talks are taking place in Djibouti sums things up. After all, this merely confirms that both sides do not view each other with respect and neither side trusts the other.

Overall, even if a peace treaty was signed, I would very much doubt that it would last long. This thinking is also backed by recent history in Somalia. Only if the Ethiopians decided to pull out would you get a victory on the battlefield. However, even a victory on the battlefield would be shallow because factions would soon emerge and anarchy would return sooner or later.

Therefore, the international community should do more to support Ethiopia rather than lofty ideals about a possible peace treaty. Given this, I believe that these peace talks are doomed to failure irrespective of the outcome because this nation will remain to be unstable.

Lee Jay Walker Dip BA MA

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