MACEDONIA - The future remains uncertain for this nation state

MACEDONIA - The future remains uncertain for this nation state

The disintegration of Yugoslavia and recent events in Kosovo are reminders that parts of Europe remain unstable. This certainly applies to the nation of Macedonia because this state is faced with many serious problems. Notably the ticking ethnic Albanian timebomb, the growth of Islam, and hostile overtones from Greece because of the name of this nation. So can stability take place in Macedonia or will the gates of disintegration cause mayhem in the future?

The sizeable ethnic Albanian population does worry many Macedonians who are mainly Orthodox Christian in faith. They look at Kosovo with aghast because they know that this game could also be played out in their nation. Also, just like the mainly Christian Orthodox Serbs, the demographic timebomb is a reality. Therefore, the future promises much for the ethnic Albanians because one day in the future they will become the majority.

This demographic timebomb alone is causing deep anxiety within Macedonia and greater ethnic unity appears to be a pipe dream because both sides do not trust each other. In many parts of Macedonia today the Macedonians are a minority already and the Albanian political party clearly favours her own community over the indigenous population.

Then we have the religious equation because most Albanians in Macedonia are Muslim. However, most Macedonians are Orthodox Christian and religious tensions could increase in the near future. Given this, nations like Saudi Arabia must be kept out in order to preserve a more moderate branch of Islam.

Adding to the woes of Macedonia is Greece because in Greece you have a place already called Macedonia within this nation state and Greece believes that Macedonia must change her name. Because of this the European Union dream (EU) and hopes of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) have been put on ice. Both the EU and NATO hope to fully integrate Macedonia within their respective institutions, thereby preserving the independence of this nation.

However, Greece refuses to listen andbecause of this Macedonia is kept on the fringes.
Overall, it would appear that one major spark could destabilize this fragile nation and this is the problem, because this is indeed possible. Therefore, a lot of pressure must be put on Greece and Macedonia to solve the "name issue."

If this can be resolved, then Macedonia can be strengthened via NATO and the EU. However, the ethnic Albanian population is a genuine problem and if assimilation does not take place then one day you could have major convulsions in this fragile nation. Therefore, this nation will continue to be hindered by many negative factors and it is important that the international community is wide awake at all times.

Lee Jay Walker Dip BA MA