Georgia took a huge gamble in South Ossetia but Russia will not be intimidated

Georgia took a huge gamble in South Ossetia but Russia will not be intimidated


The government of Georgia entered South Ossetia in the hope of unifying this region within Georgia properly, rather in name only. However, while Georgia may have hoped that her closeness with America and NATO members may of helped, this may turn out to be a complete disaster? After all, the Russian Federation "is not a paper tiger" and instead this nation is gaining in economic, political, and geopolitical influence. So will Georgia regret their recent policy towards South Ossetia and will Abkhazia make the most of Georgia`s weakness?

It would appear that the President of Georgia, Mikheil Saakashvili, decided to ignite this war because of several factors. This notably applies to Georgia`s close relationship with America and the perception that this would insulate Georgia from a Russian backlash. Also, Georgia is pro-NATO and her armed forces are helping in Iraq. Therefore, this may have given the leader some confidence and this also ties in with increased military spending in Georgia.

After tensions led to clashes between the Georgian army and various South Ossetian militias it was hoped that a binding ceasefire would be implemented. However, instead of this, both sides were involved in fighting and the situation became more tense. Then on 7 August the situation took a huge nosedive because the leader of Georgia ordered a major military operation whereby the Georgian army would take back South Ossetia by force. However, the Russian Federation responded quickly and the following day her armed forces entered South Ossetia in order to protect the Ossetians from Georgian nationalism.

Therefore, Georgia`s gamble backfired from the onset because both leaders of Russia, President Medvedev and PM Putin, stated that the armed forces of Russia had an obligation to preserve the status quo and to protect the Ossetians because the majority had Russian passports. Also, for the Russian Federation this was all about America and her meddling in this region. After all, the USA is supporting major energy routes which bypass the Russian Federation and Iran. This applies to supporting oil and gas pipelines which exploit the natural resources of Central Asia and Azerbaijan respectively and then this energy is linked to Europe via pipelines which go through Georgia and Turkey.

Given this, the stakes were very high and when America told Russia to respect the unity of Georgia, it became apparent that America and Georgia had hoped that this pressure would have silenced Russia. However, this was badly judged because Russia "is not a paper tiger" and her armed forces swiftly entered Tskhinvali, the regional capital of South Ossetia, and re-took the region after bombing Georgian forces within South Ossetia and inside Georgia itself. So Russia`s response was extremely swift and instead of a Georgian victory the opposite is happening and now the restive region of Abkhazia threatens to create a war on two fronts for Georgia.

America is now "sabre-rattling" by stating that relations may suffer long-term between America and Russia. However, for Russia it is clear that NATO expansion and America`s missile shield in both the Czech Republic and Poland (still not fully agreed) is all about containing Russia. Therefore, when President Saakashvili of Georgia ordered the attack on South Ossetia it left Russia with no option but to defend her sphere of influence.

Now the situation on the ground looks firmly within the control of Russia but this conflict is still in its infancy and wars are never easy to predict. Therefore, much depends on the leaders of Abkhazia and South Ossetia because they may sense that this is a great opportunity to seek independence or complete autonomy from Georgia. So now it is vital that Russia contains independent movements in Abkhazia and South Ossetia which are technically within Georgia, but in reality both regions desire to join the Russian Federation.

Whatever, Russia is clearly telling America, NATO, and the EU, that mutual respect is needed and while Russia respects the sphere of influences of America, NATO, and the EU, it is now vital that other nations respond like Germany towards Russia. Therefore, Russia desires to be taken seriously and the leader of Georgia enabled Russia to show the world that they mean business. So will America understand this geopolitical reality or will they ferment another crisis in the "backyard of Russia?"

Overall, it would appear that Georgia is the big loser because now both Abkhazia and South Ossetia understand that Georgia desires to take both regions back by military force. Yet now it is clear that Russia will not stand back and refrain from protecting the people of Abkhazia and South Ossetia respectively. If Georgia had waited for a political solution then maybe her claims would have been supported internationally. However, by attacking South Ossetia first, the high moral ground was lost.

Now it is hoped that nationalist forces can be contained within the region and it is in the interest of Russia to contain both Abkhazia and South Ossetia. At the same time, it is vital that America and the EU do the same with regards to Georgia. If bloodshed erupts in Chechnya or in Nagorno-Karabakh between Armenia and Azerbaijan, then we know that outside meddling is causing mayhem. However, it is not in the interest of outside powers to upset the applecart, therefore, much now rests on the status quo being maintained.

Therefore, Georgia must learn from their mistake and President Saakashvili should seek a compromise with Russia. If President Saakashvili does not learn quickly then he will threaten the unity of Georgia. Now it is hoped that all sides will sit down and talk about the seriousness of this situation. However, it is clear that Russia "holds all the aces" at the moment but they must not play poker. Instead Russia must be a responsible power and they have to contain both Abkhazia and South Ossetia by protecting the citizens of both regions.

Lee Jay Walker Dip BA MA
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ABKHAZIA - The desire for independence is getting louder!

ABKHAZIA - The desire for independence is getting louder!

The nation of Georgia faces serious internal problems and this applies to Abkhazia and South Ossetia respectively. The Abkhazians are now demanding to break free because of the Kosovo situation and they desire to create a new independent nation state or to join with the Russian Federation via special autonomy. South Ossetians are also watching events and of course they will follow suit. So can Abkhazia obtain independence?

If we look at how America and other nations, for example France and the UK, have supported the independence of Kosovo, then from an Abkhazian point of view they also have the same rights. Obviously this also applies to countless other nations where you have either frozen conflicts or ongoing problems. So Abkhazia is merely following the same logic and putting two and two together. Of course many nations warned about this but major Western powers desired to ignore this reality and their excuses are lamentable to say the least.

Yet how valid is Abkhazian independence? If we go back to the early 1990s then the demise of the former Soviet Union led to rampant nationalism and the entire region was engulfed. For example South Ossetia demanded independence from Georgia, while in neighbouring Azerbaijan they had a terrible civil war in Nagorno-Karabakh between mainly Christian Armenia and Muslim Azerbaijan. Also, southern parts of the Russian Federation were engulfed and this most notably applies to Chechnya, but also in other areas like Daghestan, Ingushetia, and North Ossetia.

Sadly since this time little progress appears to have been made and old hatreds or faultlines still exist. These faultlines are fueled by either ethnicity or religion or a mixture of both. However, the Abkhazians are both Christian and Muslim alike and most are pro-Russia because they believe that only Russia can help them in their struggle against Georgia. Yet for Georgia, this issue is like Chechnya or Dagestan in the Russian Federation, it is an internal issue.

Also, what makes this issue even more global is the energy dimension because America and Turkey, and the EU, desire to limit the roles of both the Russian Federation and Iran respectively. Given this, this issue is of strategic importance because for the Russian Federation chaos gan be used in order to spread their military leverage. Yet policies in Georgia have not helped and the central government is blighted by internal political tensions and past negative policies towards Abkhazia.

However, the "icing on the cake" for Abkhazia is the Kosovo legacy because they believe that this situation must also apply to them. Therefore, Abkhazians will increasingly grow in confidence and Georgia will feel isolated and angered by the Russian Federation. So this issue looks set to inflame passions on both sides and further bloodshed appears most likely in the near future.

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USA - President Bush is trying to undermine the Russian Federation via Georgia and the Ukraine joining NATO.

USA - President Bush is trying to undermine the Russian Federation via Georgia and the Ukraine!

President George Bush will leave office in the near future, however, before this he appears to desire a more robust foreign policy aimed at alienating the Russian Federation. More alarming, the majority of people in the Czech Republic and the Ukraine are against his policies. Yet despite this both NATO expansion and the American missile defense system are being pushed and who is this aimed at? For most people the answer is obvious, it is aimed at the Russian Federation. So why does he desire to create another negative front?

This question rankles many people in the Russian Federation because instead of a collective organization or understanding based on geopolitics, we are merely seeing NATO expansion eastwards. It is clear that America believes that Russia`s only collective space should apply to the Russian Federation. Outside this, then all former Soviet states apart from the Russian Federation are deemed to be possible future members of NATO.

Behind all the smiles and rhetoric of President Bush it is clear that he, and policy advisers, are intent on encircling the Russian Federation and this lattest idea is really mocking this nation. After all, look at both Georgia and Ukraine, they are neither stable or bastions of democracy. Also, the vast majority of people in the Ukraine do not want to join NATO but this does not matter. Instead we get the American mantra that expansion and her missile defence system is aimed at Iran. Only someone very naive would belive that!

So let us look at Georgia and why allowing this nation would be dangerous. Firstly, Georgia is deemed important to America because of geopolitics and the West desires to use both Azerbaijan and Georgia in order to bypass the Russian Federation via energy links. By doing this, then both the Russian Federation and Iran will lose out. Secondly, Georgia is probably the most anti-Russian state in the region because of past history so America can garner support more easily in this nation.

However, and this is the crux, Georgia is far from being a stable democracy because of both internal politics and because of her internal ethnic divisions. If Georgia joins NATO then does this mean that NATO forces will crush Abkhazia and South Ossetia? Because both Abkhazia and South Ossetia desire independence from Georgia. So if Georgia is not even a unitary state now, then how can this nation join NATO? If I was either an Abkhazian or South Ossetian I would be worried.

Then if we turn to the Ukraine then it is abundantly clear that this nation is always on the brink of political meltdown because tensions arise frequently. Also, in the east of this nation you have many ethnic Russians and they certainly do not desire NATO membership. More alarmingly, this nation could certainly be used to launch an offensive against the Russian Federation and this will of course lead to fresh tensions.

Therefore, NATO membership must be stopped and it is up to nations like Germany to stop this American "madness." You don`t have any justification for encircling the Russian Federation like this. America appears to be bent on causing divisions in the Balkans, the Middle East, Northeast Asia, and in Eurasia.

So nations must stand up to this policy of divide and rule. Because this policy is clearly aimed at containing the Russian Federation and you have no justification for doing this. Does America want to contain the entire world, from China to the Russian Federation and then Venezuela. Surely geopolitics is about understanding self-interests of regional powers. However, America is now bent on global containment and this policy is not valid in the 21st century.

Lee Jay Walker Dip BA MA